Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics.(oversimplification)

In the memo, the general manager of KNOW radio station claims that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To support his assumption, he refers to the continuous news stations in neighboring that have been very successful and to a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics. However, I do not find the argument convincing because some of his assumptions on which the conclusion rests are highly questionable. Here are some reasons why.

First of all, radio stations in different cities might have different kinds of audience. What works for the audience of the radio stations in neighboring cities might not work for the audience of radio station KNOW. For example, in my country, Taiwan, people lived in the country prefer to listening to the music programs while people live in the cities prefer to listening to the politics program. To make the conclusion more convincing, the general manager of radio station KNOW should do some research on the audience of the radio station KNOW so that the plan will meet to the audience’s requirement. Comparing the number of audience between two radio stations in different cities might be irrelevant.

Furthermore, the general manager assumes that because the music stores in his area report decreased sales of recorded music, he concludes that the number of audience of radio station KNOW might decline. His hypothesis provides a good starting for further investigation, but he goes too far when he thought that music stores in his area report decreased sales of recorded music are related to the listeners’ favor. He is trying to pass his speculative theory off as the incontrovertible fact.

In conclusion, the general manager of KNOW radio station notes certain relevant trends, but oversimplified the full range of possibilities account for the success of radio station KNOW. Without the direct correlation between radio station KNOW and these in neighboring cities, the general manager of radio station KNOW might be foolish to implement such a plan. Even if a survey revealed that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics, the general manager should provide a more reliable study proving that the official survey stands for the overall opinions. Evidently, misrepresented statistics and oversimplification make the argument unsound.
The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.